By George Omagbemi Sylvester
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer on paper, has once again failed to cash in on a global oil boom, despite the sharp rise in crude prices triggered by the Iran war. According to Dele Oye, Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), the country may have lost an estimated ₦28.3 trillion in annual revenue simply because it could not produce enough crude to take advantage of the surge.
The warning was published on Monday, March 30, 2026, after Brent crude reportedly traded between $102 and $114 per barrel, far above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85. Yet instead of celebrating a fiscal windfall, Nigeria remains trapped by low output, with production hovering around 1.46 million barrels per day, well below the 1.84 million bpd target.
Nigeria’s problem is no longer oil prices; it is state failure. Crude theft, underinvestment, weak asset security, and pre-committed cargoes have turned what should be national blessing into a recurring embarrassment. Even more troubling, analysts warn that much of Nigeria’s crude is already tied up in supply obligations and oil-backed arrangements, limiting the country’s ability to benefit fully from price spikes.
This is the tragedy of Nigeria’s petroleum economy: when the world pays more for oil, Nigeria still earns less than it should. That is not bad luck. That is a scandal of governance.
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