By Paul Joseph
Nigeria’s fragile electricity sector is facing renewed scrutiny after national grid output dropped to about 3,940 megawatts in March 2026, intensifying concerns over the country’s persistent power shortages and systemic inefficiencies.
The latest decline comes at a time when many Nigerians are still grappling with unreliable electricity supply, despite ongoing reforms aimed at stabilising the sector. With an installed generation capacity of roughly 13,000MW, the country continues to transmit between 3,500MW and 5,500MW on most days, underscoring a significant gap between capacity and actual delivery.
The situation has been further compounded by controversy surrounding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to disconnect the Aso Rock Presidential Villa from the national grid and transition to a dedicated solar power system.
Government sources confirmed that the move, backed by a ₦10 billion solar project, is designed to reduce the Villa’s high energy costs—previously estimated at over ₦47 billion annually—and ensure uninterrupted power supply. However, the decision has sparked widespread public criticism, with many Nigerians questioning its timing and implications amid worsening electricity shortages nationwide.
For critics, the disconnection symbolises a widening gap between government leadership and the realities faced by ordinary citizens, who continue to endure erratic power supply while bearing rising electricity costs.
Residents across major cities, including Abuja, Lagos and Kano, have voiced frustration over the development. Some described the move as self-serving, while others argued that it reflects a lack of urgency in addressing the root causes of Nigeria’s electricity challenges.
“This suggests a shift away from fixing the system that millions depend on,” said a small business owner in Abuja, highlighting the strain inconsistent power supply places on daily operations.
Nigeria’s power sector has long been plagued by recurring grid collapses, ageing infrastructure, gas supply constraints, and weak transmission capacity. Analysts warn that without addressing these structural issues, improvements in generation figures alone may not translate into reliable electricity for consumers.
Amid the backlash, the Federal Government has maintained that ongoing reforms are yielding tangible results. Speaking at the inauguration of the new headquarters of the Nigeria Electricity Liability Management Company in Abuja, Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu said the sector is witnessing measurable progress.
According to Adelabu, reforms have attracted over $2 billion in new investments, while inherited liabilities have been reduced from N2.303 trillion to about N146.76 billion. He added that government savings exceeding N700 billion have been achieved through debt verification and reconciliation efforts.
The minister also noted that disputed ground rent claims were cut from N644 billion to N41.8 billion, while debts owed by Ministries, Departments and Agencies to electricity distribution companies have declined by 45 per cent.
Adelabu attributed these gains to policy initiatives anchored on the Electricity Act 2023, which decentralises the electricity market and enables states to participate more actively. He disclosed that 16 state electricity markets have already been activated, encouraging competition and innovation.
On operational performance, he said generation capacity has increased to 14 gigawatts, with peak generation reaching 5,801.44 megawatts, while sector revenue grew by 70 per cent in 2024.
The government has also intensified efforts to close the country’s metering gap through the Presidential Metering Initiative, supported by N700 billion from the Federal Account Allocation Committee and a $500 million facility from the World Bank.
Despite these developments, many Nigerians remain unconvinced, noting that the reported gains have yet to translate into stable and affordable electricity supply.
Energy experts say the contrast between official optimism and the lived experiences of citizens is contributing to growing public dissatisfaction. They argue that consistent power delivery—not policy milestones—remains the true measure of success in the sector.
The controversy surrounding the Villa’s transition to solar power has further amplified these concerns, with some warning that such actions could erode public confidence in ongoing reforms.
Meanwhile, Adelabu has acknowledged the challenges, recently apologising to Nigerians for persistent outages and attributing the situation to gas supply constraints and infrastructure limitations, particularly during periods of high demand.
He, however, expressed optimism that current interventions would lead to noticeable improvements in the coming weeks.
For millions of Nigerians, however, the reality remains unchanged—continued blackouts, rising energy costs, and increased reliance on alternative power sources—as the country’s electricity sector struggles to deliver on long-promised stability.
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