Rising Food Costs to Worsen Poverty in Nigeria — IMF

By Opeyemi Adelakun

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising prices of food and other essential commodities could push more Nigerians into poverty and worsen food insecurity despite signs of improving macroeconomic stability.

In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, maintaining its earlier forecasts while cautioning that persistent inflation remains a major threat to household welfare.

The Fund noted that although recent economic reforms and favourable terms of trade have strengthened Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, the benefits may be undermined by the continued rise in the cost of basic necessities.

According to the IMF, higher prices for essential goods are expected to deepen poverty and increase food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable households already struggling with the rising cost of living.

For Sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund projected economic growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027, but said performance across the region would remain uneven due to differences in economic reforms, fiscal capacity and exposure to external shocks.

Globally, the IMF lowered its growth forecast to 3.0 per cent for 2026, down from the average 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024 and 2025. It attributed the slowdown to the impact of the Middle East conflict, persistent geopolitical tensions and uneven gains from the artificial intelligence-driven technology boom.

The report also warned that global inflation is expected to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027, signalling that the earlier decline in inflation has stalled.

The IMF further cautioned that renewed conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global supply chains, trigger commodity price spikes and tighten global financial conditions, while increasing trade fragmentation could further weaken economic growth and fuel inflation.

It urged governments to strengthen structural reforms, restore price stability, rebuild fiscal buffers and improve energy security to safeguard economic recovery and protect vulnerable populations.