By Opeyemi Adelakun
Nigeria’s gross revenue shared among the three tiers of government rose to N31.46tn in the first nine months of 2026, exceeding the full-year collections recorded in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, according to a report by Agora Policy.
The report, titled Ten Insights from FAAC Disbursements for January–September 2026, said the figure represented a 12.6 per cent increase from the N27.95tn recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
Of the gross receipts, statutory revenue contributed N24.25tn, or 77.1 per cent, while value-added tax accounted for N7.21tn, representing 22.9 per cent.
The report noted that N20.36tn was available for distribution before augmentation, while N11.10tn, representing 35 per cent of gross revenue, went towards savings, interventions, refunds, transfers and collection costs.
Including a N450bn augmentation, total distributions stood at N20.81tn.
The Federal Government received approximately N7.35tn during the nine-month period, while state governments received N7.01tn and local governments got N4.92tn. Oil-producing states separately received N1.53tn through the 13 per cent derivation principle.
Despite the increase, Agora Policy warned that revenue remained volatile, growth was slowing and mineral revenue was significantly below budget.
The report said: “The figures show continued nominal revenue growth, but also volatile monthly receipts and a substantial shortfall in mineral revenue against budget.”
It added that the N31.46tn collected by September was 9.5 per cent higher than the N28.74tn recorded for the whole of 2024 and represented about 88 per cent of the N35.81tn generated in 2025.
The report cautioned that the comparisons were nominal and did not account for inflation or changes in the purchasing power of the naira.
It also noted that revenue increased by N3.51tn in the first nine months of 2026, less than half the N8.97tn rise recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
According to the report, the sharp revenue increase in 2024 followed the foreign exchange and petrol subsidy reforms introduced in 2023, which may have contributed to higher naira receipts.
It said tax reform implementation and higher oil prices associated with the conflict in Iran might also have supported revenue in 2026, although aggregate figures alone could not establish the contribution of each factor.
Agora Policy estimated that if the nine-month collection pace continued, full-year gross revenue could reach approximately N41.95tn.
However, it stressed that the figure was an annualised estimate rather than a forecast, as it did not account for seasonal revenue changes.
The report also warned that movements in crude oil prices and the exchange rate could raise or reduce government receipts in the remaining months of the year.
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