By Sunday Ameh
The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance, Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu may secure less than 10 per cent of votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free and fair.
Ardo made the prediction during an interview while assessing Tinubu’s performance ahead of the 2027 election.
He identified insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and the rising cost of living as major issues that could influence the voting decisions of Northerners.
Ardo particularly criticised the administration’s handling of insecurity, arguing that insurgency, banditry and other security challenges continue to affect farmers, traders and businesses across the region.
He also faulted the economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, arguing that they had weakened Nigerians’ purchasing power despite salary increases for some workers.
“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked.
Ardo added, “The purchasing power has been depreciated,” arguing that the reforms had pushed many Northerners from poverty into deeper deprivation.
He maintained that the economic impact of the reforms, coupled with insecurity, would shape how voters assess the administration in 2027.
On political representation, Ardo also questioned the composition of the Tinubu administration, saying regional inclusion and the distribution of government opportunities could influence public perception.
He stressed that Northern voters should not be assumed to remain permanently aligned with the voting pattern recorded during the 2023 presidential election.
Rather, he said, voters would judge the administration based on their experiences since Tinubu assumed office.
Giving his assessment of the President’s chances in the region, Ardo said, “If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part.”
The prediction could heighten attention on the battle for Northern votes ahead of 2027, particularly as opposition figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso seek to build support across the region.
With the North traditionally playing a decisive role in presidential elections, any significant shift in its voting pattern could have major implications for the 2027 contest.
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