By Paul Joseph
Israel has recorded its highest voter turnout in more than four decades as citizens cast ballots in a closely contested general election that could determine the country’s political direction and reshape its security policies.
Opinion polls published ahead of Tuesday’s vote indicated that incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in a tight race with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the newly formed Yashar Party.
However, neither candidate’s political bloc was projected to secure the 61 parliamentary seats required to form a majority government, raising the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations and political uncertainty.
The election has been dominated by concerns over national security, democratic governance, military conscription and Netanyahu’s leadership, with the opposition seeking to end his time in office.
Several political parties also raised allegations of irregularities at polling stations on Tuesday morning. However, Israel’s Central Election Committee said there was no evidence of systematic tampering with ballot papers.
Under Israel’s proportional representation system, political parties must negotiate alliances to form a government, making coalition-building a crucial factor in determining the eventual winner.
Eisenkot leads the so-called change bloc, an alliance of parties with differing ideological positions united by their opposition to Netanyahu’s continued leadership.
The bloc includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and left-leaning former general Yair Golan.
Netanyahu, who first became prime minister in 1996, is seeking another term through an alliance with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that currently support his government.
Far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have been influential figures in the outgoing administration.
Arab political parties are also contesting the election, potentially giving them significant influence in determining which bloc can form a government. However, most major Jewish parties have ruled out working with them.
The opposition has criticised Netanyahu over the security failures preceding the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed nearly 1,200 people and resulted in 251 people being taken hostage to Gaza.
Opposition leaders have called for an independent commission of inquiry into the attacks, a proposal Netanyahu has resisted, arguing that such an investigation would be biased against him.
They have also raised concerns about his ongoing corruption trial, in which he denies wrongdoing, and his controversial judicial reform proposals, which previously triggered mass protests across Israel.
Netanyahu, however, has presented himself as the candidate best equipped to protect Israel, citing what he describes as strategic achievements in the country’s regional conflicts and his relationship with United States President Donald Trump.
In the final days of the campaign, reports emerged that Netanyahu had sought further military action against Iran before the election. He denied the allegations, while CNN separately reported that Trump had declined a request to approve fresh strikes against Iran.
Netanyahu also attracted criticism after sharing an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv as part of his warning about the potential threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
Eisenkot described the move as hysterical.
Military service has also emerged as a major campaign issue, particularly following the government’s failure to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox Jewish men engaged in full-time religious study to serve in the military.
The issue has generated significant controversy, especially as thousands of other Israelis have been mobilised for military operations in recent conflicts.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition includes two ultra-Orthodox parties that have opposed compulsory military service for members of their communities.
On the Palestinian issue, Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas’ rule in Gaza within 18 months, either through a United States-led peace initiative or military action if necessary.
Israel has continued conducting strikes in Gaza despite a ceasefire agreement reached last year, saying its operations target Hamas militants.
According to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began. The figures are considered reliable by the United Nations.
Israel has faced mounting international criticism over its conduct of the war, while its relations with several international partners have deteriorated.
Eisenkot broadly supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank but has called for action against extremist settlers accused of attacks on Palestinians.
He has also discussed arrangements that could provide Palestinians with a degree of autonomy or a limited form of statehood under Israeli security control.
Meanwhile, the prospect of establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel has largely faded from mainstream Israeli political debate.
The close contest means the final outcome may depend on negotiations among smaller parties after the results are announced.
Although Arab parties could potentially support an Eisenkot-led minority government, Lieberman has ruled out participating in such an arrangement.
Israel’s broadcasters are expected to release exit polls after voting closes at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. However, the results may not provide a definitive picture of the eventual parliamentary balance.
An estimated 70,000 Israelis reportedly returned from abroad to participate in the election, while hundreds of thousands of people are voting for the first time.
Soldiers and reservists are also casting ballots, although some of their votes may not be counted until Wednesday, potentially affecting the final distribution of seats.
Political deadlock remains a major concern if neither bloc can secure sufficient support to form a government.
In such a scenario, Israel could be forced to hold another election, with Netanyahu remaining as interim prime minister.
The country experienced a similar period of political instability between 2019 and 2022, when five elections were held as rival parties repeatedly failed to agree on a governing coalition.
The latest election is therefore expected to have significant implications for Israel’s domestic politics, its security strategy and its relations with Palestinians and international partners.
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