As Ondo State gears up for the 2024 gubernatorial election, the state’s political landscape is at a crossroads, presenting a unique and fascinating contest between two distinct forces—magic and luck. While both concepts are often used loosely in politics, in the case of Agboola Ajayi and Lucky Aiyedatiwa, they represent more than just metaphors. They encapsulate the essence of their political trajectories, strategies, and what each man brings to the race for the governorship of Ondo State.
Magic and luck are distinct concepts: magic involves the intentional manipulation of supernatural forces through rituals or spells, while luck pertains to random chance, operating independently of individual actions. Magic is deliberate and culturally significant, evoking wonder, whereas luck is unpredictable and viewed as a matter of probability, with outcomes being favourable or unfavourable without control.
For Agboola Ajayi, his rise in politics has been nothing short of magical; a deliberate and methodical approach to power that transcends mere chance. In contrast, Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s ascent has been marked by a series of fortunate events, none more significant than his unexpected rise to the governorship following the untimely death of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. As these two political titans prepare to face off, Starnews NG reports that Ondo voters must ask themselves: who offers the best leadership for the future, one grounded in political mastery or one whose rise has been buoyed by the winds of fortune?
Agboola Ajayi: The Political Magician
Agboola Ajayi is no stranger to the complexities of Ondo State politics. His political career has been a carefully crafted journey, marked by strategic brilliance and a keen understanding of the state’s political heartbeat. Often referred to as a political magician, Agboola’s knack for defying expectations and pulling off political feats has earned him a reputation as one of the most formidable figures in Ondo State politics.
The Roots of Agboola’s Magic
From the very beginning, Agboola understood that longevity in politics requires more than just being in the right place at the right time, it requires building deep connections, developing political acumen, and knowing when to strike. His early political career, starting as the Supervisor for Works in Ese Odo Local Government (1999-2003), laid the foundation for what would become a remarkable journey. By 2004, he was elected substantive Chairman of the local government, showcasing his ability to win the trust of his people at the grassroots level.
His election to the House of Representatives in 2007 to represent Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency at the National Assembly further demonstrated his political dexterity. Over the years, Agboola has evolved into a seasoned politician, understanding the intricacies of local, state, and national politics.
But it was his strategic partnership with the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu that solidified his status as a political heavyweight. As Deputy Governor from 2017 under the All Progressives Congress (APC), Agboola displayed an ability to navigate the often treacherous waters of state politics with a deft hand. His switch to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2020 was a bold move that, for many, signalled his ambition to carve out his own path to power.
2024: The Magical Feat That Shocked Ondo Politics
In 2023, Agboola’s magic was once again on display during the PDP primary election for the Ondo South Senatorial ticket. Facing stiff competition from an incumbent senator who was widely praised for his performance, many pundits wrote off Agboola’s chances. Yet, true to form, he pulled off a political masterstroke, securing 78 votes to defeat Senator Nicholas Tofowomo, who polled 74 votes.
He similarly surprised everyone during the 2024 governorship primary election of the PDP, securing 264 votes to clinch the ticket. His victory, achieved without the backing of party bigwigs and amid a highly competitive field, left many observers stunned.
The election was conducted under strict security, and the transparency of the process made it one of the most credible primaries in Ondo State’s political history. Agboola’s win was seen as a testament to his political experience, grassroots appeal, and ability to turn the tide when least expected; a hallmark of his “magician” persona.
Agboola’s Strengths: A Master of Grassroots Politics
Agboola’s greatest strength lies in his deep-rooted connection to the people of Ondo State, particularly the electorate in Ondo South. His understanding of grassroots politics sets him apart from many of his rivals. Unlike others who rely on party structures and elite endorsements, Agboola has built his political career from the ground up, cultivating relationships with ordinary people who form the backbone of the electorate.
The clamour from Ondo South for an eight-year rule, rather than just four, could also play in his favour. His humility and reserved nature, coupled with his long-standing political experience from local government to the national level, have earned him widespread respect across political lines. Additionally, his ability to garner support from PDP heavyweights such as Governors Seyi Makinde and Ademola Adeleke demonstrates his influence and political relevance.
Challenges Ahead: The Cost of Trust and Financial Limitations
Despite his strengths, Agboola’s campaign faces several significant challenges. Chief among them is his financial capacity. In an era where money often plays a crucial role in electoral campaigns, his relatively limited financial resources could hamper his ability to fully mobilise support, especially in a competitive gubernatorial race.
Another challenge lies in his political structure, which has been described as somewhat insular. Agboola is known for his reluctance to trust new political allies, often preferring to work with a close-knit circle. This has raised concerns about the inclusivity of his political machinery, with critics arguing that he has failed to integrate more experienced hands into his campaign.
Moreover, there are lingering rumours about potential certificate issues, although these have not been legally substantiated. While such allegations may not hold water, they could still serve as a distraction during the campaign season.
Lucky Aiyedatiwa: A Politician of Circumstance
In stark contrast to Agboola Ajayi’s carefully crafted political career, Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s rise to power has been marked by luck and circumstance. Aiyedatiwa’s political journey began in 2011 when he joined the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), later transitioning to the All Progressives Congress (APC). His early political career was relatively low-profile, but fortune smiled on him when he was appointed a Federal Commissioner on the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) board in 2018.
His appointment as Deputy Governor of Ondo State in 2021 was seen as another stroke of luck, and when fate intervened with the unfortunate passing of Governor Akeredolu in December 2023, Aiyedatiwa found himself propelled into the highest office in the state.
The Power of Incumbency
Aiyedatiwa’s position as the incumbent governor affords him significant advantages going into the 2024 election. The power of incumbency cannot be overstated, as it provides him with control over state resources and the loyalty of state agencies. He also enjoys the support of the APC’s extensive political structure, including elected lawmakers and two ministers, which gives him a formidable base from which to launch his re-election campaign.
A Rocky Road Ahead: Internal Party Division and Lack of Grassroots Appeal
However, despite these advantages, Aiyedatiwa’s incumbency has not been without controversy. His leadership style has been criticised by members of his party, who accuse him of being distant and unresponsive to their needs. Many within the APC complain that he does not engage with party leaders or the grassroots, leaving a sense of alienation among the rank and file. This perceived arrogance has fostered divisions within the party, with some APC members playing what has been described as “eye service politics” publicly supporting the governor while secretly harbouring doubts about his leadership.
Moreover, Aiyedatiwa’s reluctance to fully embrace grassroots politics could be a major stumbling block in a state where voter mobilisation at the local level is critical. His conservative approach to governance has left many party members dissatisfied, with complaints of hunger and a lack of patronage becoming common refrains. His emergence as the APC candidate in a controversial primary election has further deepened divisions within the party, with many leaders still nursing grievances.
Ondo’s Crossroads: A Decision Between Mastery and Fortune
As the 2024 gubernatorial election approaches, Starnews NG can report that Ondo State finds itself at a pivotal moment. On one side is Agboola Ajayi, a seasoned political operator whose rise has been built on strategy, experience, and a deep connection to the grassroots. On the other is Lucky Aiyedatiwa, an incumbent governor whose ascent has been marked by circumstance and fortune but whose leadership has left many questioning his ability to galvanise the electorate.
The choice before the people of Ondo is clear: do they place their faith in Agboola, the political magician with a proven track record, or do they stick with Aiyedatiwa, the incumbent who has benefited from luck but now faces the challenge of proving he can lead?
The outcome of this election will not only shape the future of Ondo State but also serve as a case study in the enduring question of what drives political success: is it magic or luck?
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